Altus Update Weekend edition #AltusOK #OKfire

While not in the Red Flag Fire Weather range, our friends at the National Weather Service Office in Norman pushed this graphic out yesterday:

 Surely, you saw the Tweet ... https://twitter.com/wx5em/status/674951784146825218... and that elevated fire weather shifts eastward today.

Please use caution anyway with outdoor fire.   It appeared there were some smoke plumes on radar yesterday.  Today would not be a good day for them to reappear.

Surely, you saw the tweet ... https://twitter.com/AltusReady/status/673937792875945984 ...  and the warmth is one of the factors for the elevated fire threat today.  From 1 pm to 5 pm, the winds come up along with the temperature while the relative humidity values tumble into the low 20% values.

Saturday's forecast has changed to include a chance of showers AND thunderstorms during the parade time.  In fact, today's Hazardous Weather Outlook just issued states 

"THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT." http://1.usa.gov/1lAf8DG

From our friends at the Storm Prediction Center:

"DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY ORGANIZES" http://1.usa.gov/1QiCgDm 

From Rick Smith at the National Weather Service Office in Norman writes:

The severe weather risk area for Saturday has expanded, with the slight risk (as of early Friday morning) now covering most of our area. Don't let the calendar fool you - the atmosphere doesn't know or care that it's December. 

Storms are expected to develop over western Oklahoma and western north Texas by very late Saturday afternoon or early Saturday evening, expanding to affect a good part of our warning area through the evening and overnight hours. Most of this event will happen after dark.

The main question we have regarding tomorrow's severe weather risk is how unstable the air will be. We expect clouds over much of the area for a good part of Saturday, but if clouds are able to break and we get heating from the sun, this would lead to more unstable air which would then increase the severe weather potential. We'll still have some strong-severe storms even if it stays cloudy all day, but more sun will increase the potential for the storms to be more organized and more severe. This will be the thing to watch as we go through the day on Saturday.

There will be plenty of wind shear (winds changing in speed and direction as you go up in the atmosphere) for organized storms, and if the instability is high enough, some of those storms could be supercells. With high amounts of wind shear and very low cloud bases expected, it won't take nearly as much instability as it might in the springtime to have rotating storms with the potential for a tornado. We're not expecting a big tornado day, but as we are constantly reminded, it only takes one. 

The front moves through Oklahoma and north Texas late Saturday night, taking the threat of severe storms with it and ushering in cooler air for Sunday. 

Keep an eye on our web page for the most up-to-date information, and be sure you are following us on Facebook and Twitter. 

Rick

Rick Smith - Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service - Norman Forecast Office
120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2400
Norman, OK 73072
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Altus is on the edge of a slight risk area for severe weather.  Please be VERY weather aware Saturday.  While wind is the prime threat mentioned above, thunder is caused by lightning.  Please remember your lightning safety rules.  "When thunder roars, come indoors."  "If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to the storm to be struck." http://1.usa.gov/1Z2Vm1G

If your travel includes the Gulf Coast this weekend, please be extra weather aware there.

Be safe and observe "Salesperson's Day" http://bit.ly/1NKaKwd responsibly.